Leverage Statisical & ML to Predict Powered by AWS Forecast, the same technology used for Amazon.com

Leverage Statisical & ML to Predict Powered by AWS Forecast, the same technology used for Amazon.com

Baseline History

Cleanse, deduct outliers and remove past promotion lifts

Statistical Forecast

Run multiple Statistical and ML algorithms and pick the best

Overrides

Apply automated promotion lifts and planner overrides

Optimal BalanceTM Forecast

Leverage Statistical Algorithms

Optimal Balance supports Prophet, NPTS, ARIMA, and ETS

Leverage Machine Learning Models

Models include Convolutional Neural Network and DeepAR+

AWS Forecast

Optimal BalanceTM is fully integrated with AWS forecast service, the same powerful technology used for Amazon.com

Promotion Lifts

Promotion lifts to remove from history to create baseline and apply in future forecast   

Forecast Error

Optimal BalanceTM has standard process to calculate forecast error 

Optimal BalanceTM Forecast leverages powerful technology to predict

Developed by Facebook Prophet is a time series forecasting algorithm based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality. It works best with time series with strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data.

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Non-Parametric Time Series
The Amazon Forecast Non-Parametric Time Series (NPTS) proprietary algorithm is a scalable, probabilistic baseline forecaster. NPTS is especially useful when working with sparse or intermittent time series. Forecast provides four algorithm variants: Standard NPTS, Seasonal NPTS, Climatological Forecaster, and Seasonal Climatological Forecaster.

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Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a commonly used statistical algorithm for time-series forecasting. The algorithm is especially useful for simple datasets with under 100 time series.
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Exponential Smoothing

Exponential Smoothing (ETS) is a commonly used statistical algorithm for time-series forecasting. The algorithm is especially useful for simple datasets with under 100 time series, and datasets with seasonality patterns. ETS computes a weighted average over all observations in the time series dataset as its prediction, with exponentially decreasing weights over time.

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Convolutional Neural Network.

Amazon Forecast CNN-QR, Convolutional Neural Network – Quantile Regression, is a proprietary machine learning algorithm for forecasting time series using causal convolutional neural networks (CNNs). CNN-QR works best with large datasets containing hundreds of time series. It accepts item metadata, and is the only Forecast algorithm that accepts related time series data without future values. 

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Developed by Amazon

Amazon Forecast DeepAR+ is a proprietary machine learning algorithm for forecasting time series using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). DeepAR+ works best with large datasets containing hundreds of feature time series. The algorithm accepts forward-looking related time series and item metadata.

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